As difficult as it may be, Republicans throughout the country need to face the hard, cold facts. One of three "game changers" need to take place if Mitt Romney is to defeat Barack Obama in the general election. Let's evaluate them.
"Game changer number one"- The U.S. unemployment rate will need to do a quick reversal. As of February 3rd, 2012, it is 8.3%. Republicans point out that the number is skewed by the shrinking work force. Eric Erickson of Red State points out that we are "deriving the final number based on a ratio and not an absolute number." The "ratio" method puts the real unemployment rate "slightly higher than 11%." Most Republicans conclude that it is much higher than that! The Democrats are dancing in the streets with the new numbers. Expect the media to spin them in Obama's favor. Mitt Romney will have an uphill, if not impossible task of discrediting them.
Game Changer Number two"- Something big, likely catastrophic must happen in the world causing oil prices to drastically spike. For example, if Isreal hits Iran, it would almost certainly lead to a confrontation and a delay in oil shipments. The strait of Hormuz might temporarily close. Nobody knows where Libya might go! Eqypt is looking increasingly unstable. The Syrian Government, with the support of Russia, is holding its ground, unappologetic and defiant. The slightest altercation could result in a spike in oil prices. If the price of a gallon of gasoline reached $5 per gallon, Obama would be blamed. This would benefit Romney who has supported domestic energy production.
"Game Changer Number three"- As unlikely as it appears, there may yet be
a challenge to Barack Obama's citizenship. A Georgia lawsuit that would have kept him off the March 6th ballot failed. While the president has posted his birth certificate on the White House website, many remain unconvinced. The mainstream media has attempted to whistle this suggestion down the road of absurdity and insanity. But, make no mistake! There are millions of Americans who believe that Barack Obama was not born within our shores. The slightest new evidence could tip the scales in favor of the Republicans.
These "game changers" aside, Republicans look to be following the same losing path of 2008. A flawed, archaic process again has resulted in their nominating the wrong candidate. A "Maverick" moderate who had gone against conservative positions was the recipe for a loss four years ago. This years choice has historically demonstrated changeable positions on most key issues!
Haven't we learned something! Or is it simply a matter of the system being rigged to benefit America's ruling class. It goes back to two liberal, Democrat leaning states choosing the Republican nominee. The result is a mess and likely another general election defeat.
A hopelessly flawed Newt Gingrich is floundering. Any hope of a brokered convention will rest on how long Gingrich can stay in the race.
Ron Paul might end his candidacy sometime in March. His support is solid and he does have money to continue. But could he actually show up in Tampa with enough delegates to make an impact? His hard core supporters continue to insist that he is the "only Republican who can win" in November.
Which bring us to Rick Santorum. He actually might make things interesting. He has Evangelical support. The Tea Party should follow suit. He would be a "favorite son" of Pennsylvania, a "must win" state for Democrats. But, there is one major concern: He's broke! Like Paul and Gingrich, the question becomes, can he go the distance?
It is important that Gingrich, Paul and Santorum stay in the race. If they do, there is an outside chance that Romney will fall short of the necessary number to win on the first ballot. If he does, the election could be saved for Republicans!
In the unlikely event that Romney fails to win the necessary votes on the fist ballot, would the alternative be limited to Gingrich, Paul and Sautorum? No. That's what could truly make for an interesting finish.
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