Make no mistake! It will be difficult for Republicans to win 270 electoral votes in the 2016 Presidential election.
In analyzing Hillary Clinton's recent Democrat Leadership Conference speech, the party's 2016 game plan is clearly evident. It can be summed up as follows:
(a) Gender warfare
(b) Class warfare
(c) Reminder of "improving lives" for millions of Americans under Obama's leadership
(d) A continued quest for Social Justice
She will predict, "if Republicans take the White House, you can anticipate that the "spickets" will be eventually turned off!" In short, entitlements such as food stamps, medical care, college education, even cell phones will be reduced, if not eliminated.
As Mrs. Clinton passionately reminded, those on the top would make certain that there "was no ladder" for others to make their climb. In her view, this is especially the case with women in America.
The speech was pure demagoguery! It is a glimpse into the Democrats' 2016 Presidential strategy. American fate will be decided, then and there. Republicans have an outside shot. But, the path to victory is narrow. To change the expected outcome, Hillary opponents must set aside differences.
The Democrat leadership is making this case to it's base. Their point amounts to "retaining control of the White House is the primary objective." The message is clear and blunt. "Let's not blow it!"
With Hillary as the almost certain nominee, Democrats see the election as "theirs to lose."
Record numbers of Americans are on the government payroll. In higher pay areas such at the Northeast, Midwest and California, entitlements can be worth as much as $40,000 per year, cash or equivalent. Recipients are reported to enjoy home computers, giant flatscreen TV's,smart phones, comfortable housing, free healthcare and education. Rejoining the work force would amount to a paycut. Mobilizing these voters will be as easy as saying "no more payola if we lose!"
Hillary Clinton, Barack Obama and the Democrat base defend these constituents. Their question: "Shouldn't these people be included in the American Dream, in the name of American fairness?" It comes down to "social justice."
As expected, "racism" will work it's way into the conversation. Minorities are positioned as downtrodden, abused, neglected and exploited. As Hillary promises, "justice for all" will be the main priority.
The wage difference between women and men will be the keynote Clinton argument. Using stinted numbers, all astericks deleted, Hillary will attempt to rally American women.
The promise of "chits and boonies," coupled with continued assertion of "you deserve them because you have a raw deal," is powerful. Perhaps un-American and certainly devious, but powerful. Bursting the bubble will take more than a few slick television commercials! Is there a winning counterpunch for Republicans?
Actually, yes!
In a previous post, we introduced the "disaffecteds." While some anti-Hillary people remain cynical, there is an argument that these seemingly forgotten voters can be rallied. After all, Ronald Reagan rallied them!
To turn out these "conservative wannabees," we must appeal to both their "need for security," and their "resentment of being left out." Common sense would suggest that any family struggling to make $35,000 per year, with two people working, will resent another family making more without working!
Democrats will tell them they "need to visit their local resource center,"(unemployment office) to "determine if they qualify" for one of the many new entitlement programs recently implemented. In other words, "no harm in trying!" And, "don't be discouraged" if you were denied the first time! We now have the "Affordable Health Care Act." And, if we can "gain cooperation from those greedy, Republicans," we might have a $10 per hour minimum wage soon!
Believe it or not, the Democrats' "glass jaw" has just been exposed!
These voters, who slightly lean Republican will not be impressed with such an overture! They want jobs! Real jobs! With benefits and retirement plans. Their opinion of those "at the government trough," is a combination of resentment and contempt.
Most of these potential voters are classified as "Independents." They aren't sold on Hillary! In many ways, they are looking for a reason to pull the lever for her opponent. Cagy Democrat strategists know this. Their plan is to launch a "scare campaign" against the Republican challenger. Hillary will be presented as the "safe" candidate.
This is why anyone seeking to avoid a Hillary Clinton Presidency must take heed!
From past experience Republicans have learned two important lessons:
(1) Attempting to "out Democrat the Democrats" has never worked.
(2) Third parties have never been successful.
Don't think for a moment that Hillary will not wage a "dirty fight." She has no record to run on. But she will have a "monster" warchest. Expect a massive negative advertising campaign against her opponent. The question becomes "which" potential nominee provides the least amount of fuel for her onslaught?
Mitt Romney will be the ideal opponent for "class warfare." She will replay the tape that Mother Jone's David Corn produced in 2012. The result would be predictable.
Ted Cruz was born in Calgary, Alberta. She will refer to the constitution's requirement of "being born in the United States," which makes Cruz ineligible.
Rand Paul's votes and rhetoric will create the perfect ground for "scaring the pants off" working class Americans, not to mention minorities.
Mike Huckabee will be portrayed as the "religious fanatic" who supported Todd Akin in the 2012 Missouri Senate race.
A Scott Walker Presidency would be accompanied by a national "right to work law," effectively eliminating private sector unions in America.
Rick Santorum would make "repealing Roe versus Wade," his top priority, while pushing for legislation santifying marriage between a man and a woman.
A campaign against Jeb Bush would amount to a campaign against his Brother. Dubya's watch and the fallacies of it, ranging from Iraq to the banking meltdown would be recounted with vigor and great detail.
Chris Christie's stormy Governorship would be easy to run against.
Which essentially leaves Rick Perry...
The Travis County indictment could ultimately work to his advantage. Unlike Christie's "bridge gate," the evidence is faulty at best. Better yet, for Perry, it shows every indication of being politically motivated. The Travis County District Attorney, Rosemary Lehmberg has become a symbol of today's Democrat party. It will be difficult for Hillary Clinton not to take the path of Alan Dershowitz and denounce the indictment altogether!
The Establishment can live with Rick Perry. The Tea Party can embrace Rick Perry. Evangelical voters will turnout for the Texas Governor. Equally significant, these "forgotten Americans," the "Disaffecteds," will buy Rick Perry.
Unlike Hillary Clinton, Perry isn't merely talk! He has a report card. And, it's a good one! In fact, when it comes to "Jobs and the Economy" there is none better! Perry will remind that there are "two million" less Americans working full time today than in 2008. He will attack Obama's job numbers with zeal.
Perry will also talk about "securing the borders." This is a critical issue to not only Disaffecteds, but the Republican base.
Lastly, he will talk about "peace through strength." This will score points with many non-Republicans. The Russians refer to Rick Perry as "a cowboy with deep understanding of millitary affairs." As a former Air Force C-130 pilot, this perception is predictable!
Most importantly, Rick Perry connects with the working poor. Growing up as the son of West Texas tenant farmers, he can relate to "not having an indoor toilet until he was six years old."
Perry's counter to Hillary's promise of "chits and boonies" will be "creation of millions of energy sector jobs" that offer high pay and benefits. These words may not amount to much in the ghettos of Detroit. But, they will resonate with Americas' working poor.
Unlike any Republican candidate, Perry can say to a Hillary challenge, "this is my record and I stand behind it! Now let's talk about your record; or lack thereof!"
Do Republicans honestly want to waste time and money on a primary?
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