Monday, April 20, 2015

GOP Nominee Should Have a History With Hispanics

Former Clinton consultant, Doug Shoen recently referred to Hillary's campaign as "like a giant balloon, looking for a pin."

Will she implode? Don't count on it! Mrs. Clinton has the media firmly in her tank! True there are many in her party who might like to see someone else. Most in her party who would welcome some primary competition. But, it's all a charade. When the smoke clears, it will be Hillary Clinton as the Dem's nominee. It about inertia. Hillary Clinton is the Democrat's Bob Dole.

Clinton is not taking anything for granted. She is engaged in conversation with San Antonio Major, Julian Castro. The topic: His joining her on the ticket! For those not familiar with the 40-year-old Castro, take a closer look. Mayor Castro sees "Chicanos" as victims of prejudice, bigotry and exploitation. His selection would indicate that Hillary isn't thinking about bi-partisanship and a working relationship with Congress. Why should she? Class warfare worked splendidly for Barack Obama.

There are some old hands, such as James Carville, not to mention her husband, advising her. They are warning, "don't take any previous voter for granted." Especially Hispanics.

Jeb Bush is seen as a "difficult" match-up. Not that the Clinton's think that he couldn't be beaten! Of the three or four possibles, he might be the easiest. But, he was a successful governor in a key swing state, is husband to a Mexican wife, speaks the language better than 90% of American Latinos and has drawn the wrath of many fellow Republicans for what is described as a "soft" position on immigration.

Rick Perry hasn't caught fire. Yet. But, his tenure as Governor of Texas included some noteworthy achievements and advancements for Hispanics. One of the most surprising is the high school graduation rates in Texas. Perry tallied 44% of the Hispanic vote in Texas' 2010 Gubernatorial, general election.

Marco Rubio has one of the most impressive stories in recent years. His youth could work to his advantage. The Clinton camp evidently sees the potential of a 2008 in reverse. Party history, however is not on his side as far as being the nominee. Yet he tops nearly every list as a V.P. select!

Mike Huckabee received 46% of the Hispanic vote in his last re-election campaign in Arkansas. The former Governor will readily remind that he also received 48% of the African American vote.

While Ted Cruz has the right surname, it will be easy enough for Hillary Clinton to bury him with her war chest. Ditto for Rand Paul, although both, especially Paul are gaining some traction with Hispanic voters.

The Republican stable is full of race horses to be sure! And, a few nags, such as South Carolina, "R.I.N.O.," Lindsey Graham.

To be sure, both Scott Walker and John Kasich would be qualified nominees. But should the lack of appeal to Hispanics preclude them?

Clinton's camp hopes that Republicans will again ignore this crucial block of voters, as they did in 2012. Don't look for them to take any chances with a moderate like Jim Webb. Webb's military report card would bring some credibility to the ticket. But, Julian Castro will enable them to play the class warfare card with zeal, and a "truckload" of cash!

Sadly her party may be willing to do this. Any Democrat strategist will tell you that to "split" the Hispanic vote with Republicans would be a disaster, a recipe for losing the general election. They know that a Bush-Huckabee or a Perry-Rubio or a Huckabee-Rubio ticket would pit the former first lady/Secretary of State against a veteran Governor who had the ability to mobilize Evangelicals and/or Youthful voters.

Worst still, all three did exceptionally well with Hispanic voters in previous elections.

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