Oh, how the Republican Establishment would love if one or all of the three remaining Romney challengers would exit the race! If history is a predicter, they'll get their wish.
The rules are slightly different this year. There will be no "winner take all" states prior to April first. Even Florida is a good bet to have their delegates divided along the new guidelines. This makes it more difficult to have an early winner. It's a good thing! Even one third of voters selecting Mitt Romney are saying that they would have preferred someone different.
Nary a day passes when another rumor of Newt Gingrich calling it quits is heard. A lot of these "predictions" can be traced to national Romney headquarters in Boston. Newt continues to deny that he's folding. His attacks on the former Massachusetts Governor are sharper. He is joined by the other two suiters. Ron Paul proclaims that "less" and not "more" government is the answer. Rick Santorum insists that he is the "real conservative" in the race.
For now, both the Texas Congressman and former Pennsylvania Senator are in the race. Paul's performance in Nevada wasn't totally discouraging. 19% of the vote should translate to six delegates. A little here, a little there can add up! He's a good bet to pick up more delegates in Minnesota and Maine, two caucus states. He has money. But can he do anything more than influence the platform?
Santorum hopes that with Gingrich not on the Missouri ballot, he stands to win. These delegates are non-binding. That could throw a different variable into the race. We recall that John McCain eeked out a 900 vote win over Mike Huckabee in 2008. He ultimately ended up with all of Missouri's delegates. Little twists like the "Show me summation" could lead to a brokered convention.
What if Mitt Romney falls short of the necessary 1144 delegates on first ballot. While it's not likely, it's certainly not out of realm of possibility! If so, then what?
I think it's a safe bet to rule both Ron Paul and Newt Gingrich out! Polls would suggest that Newt would lose decisively to Obama. Paul's position on defense "scares the dickens" out of most Republicans.
The most loyal Paul supporters continue to insist that he is the only Republican who can win the general election. But smart money suggests that Establishment, Wall Street, Mitt Romney types would opt for Obama over Paul.
Newt Gingrich is a smart man and an entertaining speaker. He has some very plausible ideas. But he often seems scattered. Then there's the baggage. A lot of Republicans like Newt with their heart, but their head says "better stay with the more electable Romney."
Is Romney as electable as he first appeared? There have been some minor gaffes that reflected an out-of-touch patrician who is not truly in sinc with mainstream America. He seems content to coast on "the economy" as the single issue that will be enough to replace Barack Obama. But what if unemployment drops under 8% by election day?
Rick Santorum could emerge at the 11th hour as the best alternative. Evangelicals trust him. The Tea Party likes him. "Blue collar" Democrats gravitate to him. But, he needs to win and quickly! A victory in Missouri would keep him in the race. If he were the eventual nominee, he would bring signifcant strengths to the table. Topping them all would be his inside track on the "Keystone State." Pennnsylvania is 54% Italian and 77% Roman Catholic. Unemployment officially tops 10%. This is a state that the Democrats cannot lose. Obama would have an uphill climb making his case for re-election against a "favorite son."
Assuming that Romney didn't tally 1144 delegates on the first ballot, could Santorum, Paul and Gingrich supporters agree on a Romney alternative? This is the million dollar question. It is not definite but probable that Gingrich would have the most delegates of the three. If he came to Tampa with 600 delegates he would be in the best position to nominate a Romney alternative; other than himself. While it wouldn't be Paul, it might be Santorum. But Paul would need to agree and that might not be forthcoming, considering the former Senator's penchant for earmarks and excessive spending. Then what?
A growing number of conservatives are openly talking about "drafting" freshman Senator, Marco Rubio for the nomination. True, at 41 he would be the youngest president in history. His experience, while limited exceeds President Obama's at this same point in 2008. Rubio has rebuffed any and all speculation about interest in the Vice Presidency. Chief Executive is another thing. Let's examine some other reasons why this might be the Republicans best option; assuming they want to win in November.
Currently the economy is tepid at best. It is almost impossible to get hired if you are 55 or older, or if you are just entering the work force. The latter groups is greatly disappointed in Obama. They passionately supported him in 2008. Now, they are looking hard at the Republican field. Rubio would connect with these voters like no other politician. The Florida Senator proved to be the master of social media in his 2010 election. He would be their champion. Pitted against Rubio, Obama would become the "cynical old man," who made excuses and blamed others for his failings.
Many older workers feel that they are being thrown on the garbage heap. In reality, many 55+ workers have been self employed in past times. The Obama regulations have been especially unkind to small business. Marco Rubio is exceptionally small business friendly. Where Mitt Romney caters to Fortune 500 companies, Rubio applauds "mom and pop business started in the bedroom or basement."
Rubio talks American exceptionalism. He makes the case of "why" our system is and always has been the world's best. He positions the Obama agenda as akin to Western Europeon socialism. His message is truly to the self made man and why people come to America. While the other candidates attempt to compare themselves to Ronald Reagan, Marco Rubio is Ronald Reagan; with a flavor of Thomas Jefferson. Americans, young and old, of all races see this.
That's why Marco Rubio would defeat Barack Obama. And defeat him decisively, perhaps with as many as 400 electoral votes! Married to an immigrant, the son of exiles, he is the ultimate nightmare opponent for Obama and the Democrats.
True, Marco Rubio has no foreign policy experience. But a thoughtful V.P. select would be Condoleeza Rice. The former Secretary of State expertly fills the gap and with it brings another key voting block to the table: Professional women, many of whom would be Independents.
A Rubio-Rice ticket would signal a new day in the Republican party. Gone would be the "party of old white men." It would be replaced by a new generation of Americans who embraced the traditional American standard. Both Marco Rubio and Condoleeza Rice know the meaning of "American Exceptionalism."
That is why it is important for Newt Gingrich, Ron Paul and Rick Santorum to stay in the race. None might win the prize. But the winner would be America.
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