Saturday, January 24, 2015

Paul's Presidential Run Should be Delayed until '24, '28.

The seeds of revolution are written all over Rand Paul's Presidential aspirations.

The 2016 Republican field is beginning to take shape. Surprisingly, both Mitt Romney and Jeb Bush plan to make a go of it. To Tea Party Republicans, this is glorious news! After 2012's Establishment plurality selection, it would be only fitting that Bush and Romney split the Establishment vote. Better yet, with them in the race, it's a good bet than other hopefuls such as Chris Christie and Scott Walker pass on a presidential run.

Nobody really knows what to make of Marco Rubio. Will he take on his mentor, Jeb Bush? And, if so, where will his money come from? Four years ago, the idea of a Rubio run would have excited Paul's Tea Party constituents. Post "Gang of Ocho," is a different landscape. Yet, in potentially alienating some voters, Rubio has evidently picked up others. Bill O'Reilly shocked a lot of us when he called Rubio "a moderate."

Most of the country expects Rick Perry to eventually enter the race. Perry says he's ready, having made the necessary preparations. His fiery speech at last weekends Iowa Freedom Summit reflected a clear agenda for 2016. This isn't 2012. Expect a different candidate when he does enter. Perhaps he is awaiting word on if the Travis County indictment will have legs. Most experts contend that it won't. But, it's hanging around is not good. Conversely a dismissal will bode well for Perry.

Mike Huckabee is apparently considering getting into the fray. His new book, "Guns, God, Grits and Gravy," epitomizes the hopes, promises and frustrations of mainstream America. It also paints a sordid picture of Americas ruling class. Those close to the Huckabee camp realize that money will be the biggest problem for the former Arkansas Governor. They also know that their hero holds the trust of a block of voters capable of swinging the election.

Will Ted Cruz throw his hat into the ring? Pure conservatives pray that he will. Cruz says all of the right things. In many ways, he is the conservative reflection of Barack Obama himself. While evidently as conservative as Obama has proven liberal, Cruz holds many simularities to the President:

A. Harvard Lawyer
B. Great Orator
C. Decided Ideologue
D. Razor Thin Resume
E. Questionable Eligibility
F. Lack of Executive Experience

The last factor in itself may be reason enough for Rand Paul to delay his candidacy. Paul doesn't have the looming question of eligibility that Cruz must contend with. But he does have a Kentucky law that must be considered.

Rand Paul cannot run for President and run for Senate re-election. Current Secretary of State and Mitch McConnell's opponent of last fall's Kentucky Senate race, Alison Lundergan Grimes is anticipating Paul's presidential announcement. Assuming that it comes, she might take what remains of her war chest and run for Paul's seat. This would be bad for Republicans! Grimes has been called, "Nancy Pelosi with a Kentucky drawl."

A growingly asked question: "Should Paul go full throttle into his quest for the presidency in '16? Or, should he wait, increasing his overall name recognition, while growing his constituency?

Should Paul decide to seek re-election, he will be difficult to beat. As a second term Senator, he could better formulate his argument for a later White House run. It would begin with making good on what 79% of America wants: Senate and Congressional term limits. Paul would be in ideal position to sponsor the measure. In doing so, he would become the chief spokesman for taking on the Washington political hierarchy.

The delay would likewise offer Paul time to clarify two positions inconsistent with those of the GOP base: His opposition to voter I.D. cards and his perceived "dovish" approach to foreign policy.

Successsful or not, Rand Paul can assert himself as the anti-establishment, anti-career politician voice. It would be easy for him to subsequently return to Kentucky and run for Governor in 2023. At that juncture, Rand would be 60 years old.

True, Paul's inner circle might resist Rand waiting until 2024 or 2028 to run for President. Yet, when considering the competition, waiting might be the most prudent strategy. There are two problems with Paul's message:

1) It takes on an apparatus that is largely unknown by most Americans.
2) It is easy to misrepresent and even easier to demagogue.

To tackle the former, groundwork is necessary and allies are desperately needed. Both will be discussed in a future post.

The latter amounts to a prediction of what Hillary Clinton would do, if she were Paul's general election opponent. Hillary has no record to run on. But, she will have a "truckload" of cash with which to launch a negative scare campaign against Rand Paul. This is something that the Kentucky Junior Senator must avoid.

The Republican field is crowded. The good news is, it could become much less crowded overnight. It will depend on the maturity of Tea Party Republicans. When they come to grips with the fact that Ted Cruz would be a better Supreme Court Justice than President and Ben Carson is about as qualified to be President as Charles Barkley, they'll be there!

Marco Rubio remains the wildcard. If he finds "dinero sufficiente," look out! Smart money predicts "he won't; if Jeb runs!" At that point, look for Marco to entertain any and all VP overtures.

Meanwhile Rand Paul should nurture his precious seed. In truth, it isn't ready to be sown. What must come first is a "cleansing" of the current order. All indications would conclude that only Rick Perry has both the will and stamina to make this happen.

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