Sunday, November 4, 2018

America's Four Choices

These storied midterms will essentially come down to four choices for America.

Republicans will do must better than predicted by pundits. In addition to comfortably holding the House of Representatives, they will add six Senate seats. Trump will enter 2019 with unsurpassed confidence, calling it a mandate.

Republicans will win a disappointing but satisfactory three Senate seats, and hold the House by the most narrow of margins: four seats or less. There will be anger demonstrated by the Democrats. Hopefully it won't result in violence.

Republicans will win a disappointing, yet effective three to four Senate seats but watch the Democrats pick up a 28 House seats, a thin yet decisive win. Democrats are faced with a quandary: Stay with Nancy Pelosi and risk the majority again in 2020? Or, go with a fresh face?

Democrats shock the world by picking up one Senate seat, bringing their total to 50. In the House, they notch a strong 38 seat pickup. It would be hard to imagine not hearing cries of voting fraud with this outcome!

Let's start with choice four. It will be difficult for Democrats to win in Texas or Tennessee. People are scared! There is more concern about open borders than ever before in Texas. Tennessee's largest city, Nashville is booming! The capital is in Nashville. Marsha Blackburn is their girl! East Tennessee has always been overwhelming Republican.

Democrats might sweep Arizona, Nevada and Montana. But, chances are better that Trump sweeps them. Two out of three is more probable both ways. Republicans only need to win two out of three.

Indiana and West Virginia? I don't know about the latter. Joe Manchin is likable. His opponent is competent and committed. Tt comes down to "how truly uncomfortable" people are with either candidate. If Hooster state Libertarians decide to break for one of the major parties, Donnally will lose.

I think both North Dakota and Missouri are lost causes for Democrats.

Which brings us to Florida. This may be the most important state of all. If Scott ousts Nelson(which he should) and people figure out Andrew Gillum, (which most are doing), both Scott and Ron Desantis will win. Unfortunately, a lot of Floridians have already voted. The Governor's extra time spent with disaster victims in the Panhandle and Trump's visit to Pensacola, may prove pivotal with turnout.

When casting this analysis, it is easy to see why the third scenario looks most likely. In fact, it could set the table to a 2020 landslide, if the Congress retains Nancy Pelosi as speaker and plays the obstruction-impeachment game!

Choice two is what most Republican operatives optimistically predict. Maybe it's wishful thinking. I would think that a three seat Senate pickup might spell doom in 2020, because it would likely not include Florida. Retaining the House by narrowest of margins would be good news for Republicans wanting Kevin McCarthy as House Speaker.

Choice one would set the standard for future presidential midterms.

Should Republicans hold the House in comfortable fashion(15 to 25 seats), chances are we'll see Jim Jordan as House Speaker; nine to 15 seats, possibly Steve Scalise. Six pickup Senate seats would probably include Florida, West Virginia, Indiana, Missouri, North Dakota and Montana. The GOP would hold serve on the rest.

Almost certainly, scenarios one and two will result in the wall being built. Immigration reform will finally happen. We will have a market based healthcare system that will lower the costs for everyone. The roads and bridges will get fixed. The trade deals will be finalized, to America's benefit. We will improve relations with previously hostile countries.

Finally, options one and two will allow the "swamp to be drained."

Make no mistake! Allow options three and four, and the swamp will survive and thrive.

These are the choices.

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